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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still