🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.