Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
