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Breaking into the world’s most-visited museum in the middle of the day, taking eight pieces of priceless historical gems and vanishing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for international notoriety and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who study patterns in international art crime, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a series of quick-hit thefts focused more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a pattern that has appeared over the last ten years in Germany, Britain and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is more secure.”

A series of aggressive jewellery shop thefts mean that many stores have beefed up their security in recent years, with security personnel on their premises and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, on the other hand, look more exposed, partly because of the inherent factor of being public-facing institutions in historic buildings, and partly the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the globe have reduced spending on law enforcement and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – featuring jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the crown of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the robbers dropped by the street on their way out – has inevitably drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, carried out by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent burglary of valuables from a German institution worth over €113m, the theft of a £4.75m valuable object from Blenheim Palace the that year, the 2017 heist of a large gold coin from a European museum or even a series of robberies of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, specialists say, the thieves would find it hard to sell them. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the licit market”, commented an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the cultural authorities has released images of the items. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see paperwork confirming legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, museums were often hesitant to announce publicly about the disappearance of famous art pieces and would stay silent out of shame. Now, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the storage and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to conceal it, maybe by moving it among difficult criminal actors,” said Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to collect a ransom.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been commissioned. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It's global news and in all the newspapers. If you acquire these, if you get caught, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot bequeath it to your children.”

Altering taken items by melting down or re-cutting does reduce the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary methods give stones a bigger and lighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or barter the price down for a coverup.

Crucially, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the evidence of the theft. “I suspect that the robbers will try to bring the items to locations with gem knowledge like Israel, another nation or even as close as a city, and locate an expert to cut out the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about protective steps at the institution, with a unauthorized state auditor report expected to be released next month criticising “considerable” and “ongoing” delays in modernizing systems and noting that security cameras were lacking in multiple areas. But specialists say showing precious items in older structures with a steady stream of guests comes with dangers that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to secure,” explained an art crime professor. “They often have large accessible windows that makes it easy for criminals to get away, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid security systems for buildings should be designed “like a fortress”, said a security advisor. “It should include several layers to repel intruders.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with advanced surveillance systems or integrated vibration sensors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but historic institutions may be reluctant to alter their exteriors. Laser scanners can be difficult to fit to decorated surfaces. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the day as crowds walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which took place between morning hours local time, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. Frequently when guards change their shifts and prior to the museum is crowded who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new devices that can raise the alarm more quickly and efficiently, but it has also provided thieves new methods with which to bypass security measures. In Paris, the robbers accessed the museum’s first-floor window with a mobile equipment and breached a window with a electric tool.

An author said the discussion in the country about the 232-year-old structure had mostly focused on crowd control in recent years, and less on protection.

The institution has an in-house brigade of about fifty full-time emergency personnel, but their mission is mainly to protect the collection from fires and flooding. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the security of the Louvre all depends on political will and funding, and currently France lacks sufficient money.”