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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."