From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”