Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The average number of everyday murders per month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent official statistics. But, public safety analysts have advised that murder data might not indicate better countrywide security.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded over these months is very significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the lowest number of homicides were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her public safety approach for an ostensibly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

But, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for assessing the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it could obscure periods when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the country to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst said.