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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "significant consequences" in August should Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing ceasefire negotiations, the former president finally enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This move substantially impacted Putin's ability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European participation, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's initiative would essentially reward Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the proposal actually weaken that very sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business experience, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, as if giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. However, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a damaged region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it no longer acts as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the accountable government that his growing dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

While keeping in position the presently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Beyond favoring Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that are a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed route to the capital should he later opt to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a step that would make renewed fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of six hundred thousand. Notably, the plan imposes no similar constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal states: "Every extremist ideology and practices must be condemned and banned." As if to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia promise not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar agreements in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of captured land in the Donbas to the government – how should anyone trust Russia this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. While the proposal promises a "decisive unified defense action" in case Russia restart its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars vary from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his weakened troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a capable national defense – Ukraine's primary protection against future Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not