Behind the Pomp of Putin's Delhi Trip: The Indo-Russian Bond That Has Frayed.

The rhetoric and imagery from Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest official trip to India projected a strong bilateral partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the statesmen shared a car journey, mirroring a known diplomatic gesture. In his comments, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian connection as a "beacon", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's tenth visit to India over his quarter-century rule and his twentieth encounter with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Divide Separating Symbolism and Reality

Nevertheless, a significant divide persists between the symbolism and the substance of this relationship. Although Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are in fact buying less Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two countries signed numerous memorandums of understanding covering migration, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. But, expected revelations on significant military deals failed to come to pass. India has not concluded any substantial defence purchases with Russia since the 2022 offensive of Ukraine, a trend fueled by delays in shipments of equipment and components as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.

A Relationship With Diminished Strategic Heft

These developments suggests that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer carries the identical geopolitical clout it once possessed. In the Cold War, India maintained preferential trade terms and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This privileged alliance peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both countries have sought to preserve a appearance of this special bond through a "special and privileged" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the truth is that their engagement lacks the former significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the West.

Broadening and Inherent Contradictions

New Delhi is unlikely to sever its crucial links with Moscow. But, as Western pressure mounts on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to broaden the relationship into new areas. On Putin's trip, they announced an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, balanced and long-lasting". This includes enhancing market access for Indian products to rectify a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two covers several strategically important sectors – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Bonds and Perceived Dependability

At an ideological level, a high degree of closeness with Russia persists, particularly among older cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's pivotal role during the earlier era. This has resulted in a degree of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing tensions between India and the US, in which American officials have issued critical remarks about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a more dependable partner.

This key difficulty, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration issued during Putin's India trip made no mention to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically described the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's often-repeated statement that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the conflict have been limited.

Squaring the Dilemma: India's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This dynamic does not belie the inherent contradictions in India's foreign policy. The nation is poised to finalize a free trade agreement with the European Union, after a similar agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to boost cultural exchanges between India and Russia.

How can India resolve this circle? New Delhi will be hoping that current peace negotiations will succeed, leading to a cessation of fighting and the elimination of a major irritant in its relations with the West. But, should a settlement is reached, if it falls short of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian alliance will undoubtedly continue in Western governments.