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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.