Are You Not Being Entertained? This Decline of the Goals from Open Play
A key narrative of the Premier League season so far is the reduction of goals scored in open play and the way sides are finding goals more from set-plays instead.
Looking at goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less in total.
Examining overall statistics, shot attempts teams are taking have seen an incredible drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage previously.
And despite the big increase in set-play finishes, records show a mere two extra attempts generated from these situations excluding spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency teams have been at discovering methods to score from set-pieces.
Goal Averages Tell the Tale
Over 300 goals notched in 110 matches up to now calculates at 2.74 scores each match, if maintained for all 38 games might be the lowest for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69).
However, only under 200 goals coming in open-play translates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the lowest for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).
2009-10 is also the unique EPL season to see goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).
Which Teams Bear the Most Responsibility?
Regarding goals scored from open-play, Wolves have recorded by far the biggest decrease, scoring only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage last season.
Apart from Wolverhampton, the EPL's fall in open-play scoring is predominantly a London phenomenon, with half of the city's seven teams recording a minimum of five goals fewer from open play than the prior season.
In fairness, that's largely down to their scoring lots of scores at the start of last season as opposed to them really struggling to convert in open play this season.
At the same time Manchester City have recorded the largest rise, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored to date originating in open-play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
We've compared the promoted teams with the relegated sides that they superseded. Sunderland Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 on their way to demotion last season.
When it comes to goals scored from set-plays (aside from penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the largest rise, with the two clubs replacing the five less scores that they've netted in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.
Man United have recorded twice as many scores from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign ahead of the manager took charge, while the Black Cats once more are more successful at netting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.
City don't seem to have got the message about increasing scoring from set-pieces, as they've scored three fewer than last season, like the Reds, though that might be down to the altered approach they have tried to implement.
League-Wide Trends
Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – represent the current campaign's top trend-setters by recording fewer scores from open play and additional from set-pieces, while Man City are the unique club to buck the trend so far by doing the exact opposite.
It remains to be seen to watch if teams persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and start scoring additional scores in open-play as well.
