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Whenever the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are dispatched across the border, with containers of illicit tobacco hanging beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this illicit balloon traffic has compelled Lithuania's primary air hub into shutdown 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the government are adamant they are dealing with something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an manifestation of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Government Action

The Lithuanian administration has declared an state of emergency.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers previously, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Naturally it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus exploits criminal networks to impact adjacent states," a senior official stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Nightly Patrols

Now, each evening, security forces head out in the border zone.

The balloons are primarily seen during the night.

Teams set up mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a financial incentive to any firm that can figure out how to intercept them.

In the meantime, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also act as a preventive measure.

Underlying Aims

The frontier line is now defined by a tall metal fence, with security wire and concrete blocks.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as hostile.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a manufactured emergency.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Economic and Social Impact

For now, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the fundamental challenges."